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Can Anyone Kill the iPhone?

By Joe Pawlikowski
July 9, 2008

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If anyone can kill the iPhone, it's RIM.

As I've noted before here at PDAStreet, the iPhone and the BlackBerry, as currently constituted, shouldn't run into the heavy competitive issues espoused by most of the breathing press.

Yes, there's a bit of overlap, as there is with most smartphones. But overall, with Research In Motion (RIM) taking the larger chunk of the enterprise market and Apple handily eating up the consumer sector, they play to different audiences.

However, we've seen some spill-over lately.

An iPhone for the Enterprise
This is nothing new: In fact, Apple announced enterprise capabilities for the iPhone at the beginning of this year. But it was the first real signal that they were gearing up for a competition with RIM. And now that Apple is the No. 2 smartphone manufacturer in the U.S. - of course, trailing RIM - the battle seems imminent.

So why do I say that they can live in peaceful coexistence?

Simply, because RIM has enough of a brand name that not even the iPhone can kill it. And that's fine and good.

Apple will have its foray into enterprise, likely landing at more creative institutions. But they'll never really be able to replace BlackBerry in an enterprise setting. There's just too much to be said for RIM's push email system, its favorable operating system, a mechanical keyboard, and enormous library of third party applications.

And then there's the whole security issue, which I'll leave for someone more knowledgeable in the field.

RIM's Consumer Play
Largely, RIM has been an enterprise business. But we saw them seep over a bit into the consumer sector with the release of the BlackBerry Pearl. This candybar phone is much slimmer than the normal corporate BlackBerry, and sports just a half-QWERTY keyboard. The idea is that it's functional enough for enterprise, but sleek enough for the consumer sector. RIM recently upgraded the Pearl, releasing it on all of the major carriers. The company also has its first flip phone, the Kickstart, waiting in the wings.

The Curve was another attempt to reel in the consumer side. And it seems to have worked a bit. Of all the BlackBerry devices I see, the most frequent is the Curve. It's a bit narrower than the 88xx series, and it fits better in the palm of your hand.

So does this represent the spillage of RIM and Apple? Does RIM's attempts with the Pearl and Curve grab as much of the consumer market as Apple's enterprise experiment takes of the corporate market? I can't say.

Intuitively, I think Apple would still be ahead here. Maybe not by much, and again, this is just an educated guess.

The New BlackBerry, The New iPhone
Over the summer, RIM will launch the BlackBerry Bold, a stunning new device that they announced at WES 2008.

In many ways, the Bold mimics RIM's corporate-style phones. It still has the mechanical keyboard and full enterprise support. However, it has added a number of consumer-friendly features, including a full-feature browser and more multimedia functions, including sync capabilities with iTunes.

Of course, it's not like Apple is lying down for this. They're about to launch their new iPhone - with 3G speeds - this Friday. It'll feature many improvements and the addition of some enterprise-friendly features.

This iPhone is being released prior to the Bold, which many think will give Apple a competitive advantage. But again, we have the issue of target markets. People know the Bold is coming out, and if its here a few weeks after the iPhone, so be it. They may lose a few sales to impulsive buyers, but their core will still be there.

The New New BlackBerry
The hitch in all this is the rumored BlackBerry Thunder, a fully touch screen device by RIM. Nothing is confirmed on this front, but sources seem pretty confident that we'll be seeing the device before the end of the year. This is what could really ignite the RIM/Apple wars.

Early reports have the Thunder being essentially an iPhone clone, except with four physical buttons: Send, end, back, and menu. It is also reportedly headed to Verizon for a lifetime exclusive deal. This has a couple of implications in the smartphone wars.

With the iPhone on AT&T and the Thunder on Verizon, they are on competing platforms. So it's tough to say if one will kill the other. It might just be that AT&T customers go with the iPhone and Verizon customers go with the Thunder. There will be some defections for sure, but they could even out in the end.

The iPhone Killer
There has been so much talk about "iPhone killers" ever since the device debuted. Actually, there was talk about such devices even before June 29 of last year. But after a year of success, it doesn't appear that anyone will be able to kill the iPhone. It's simply too popular a device.

However, you can compete with it. Verizon has tried before, releasing the LG Voyager, the HTC Touch, and the Samsung Glyde.

While these devices might be quality, they simply don't have the name-brand backing that RIM has. And so when RIM releases the Thunder, there's no doubt that it will outsell all three of those phones combined. In fact, in their respective first years, we could see Thunder sales rival those of the 3G iPhone.

Does that mean that the Thunder is an iPhone killer? Hardly. But if anyone is poised to compete with Apple, it's RIM.

About the Author
Joe Pawlikowsk is the senior editor of BBGeeks, a site for BlackBerry news, reviews, opinions, and insights.



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